TG GiftsGuides · Updated 2026-11-02
What fair price means on this site
Fair price here is a reproducible estimate from public Fragment sales: the cheapest listing of the same model, then the median of that model's recent sales, then the collection floor — with a 5th to 95th percentile range and a confidence label. It is a statistic about past sales, not an offer, not advice, and not a promise that anyone will pay it.
The five rules
| Rule | What it does | Where to check it |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Order | Model floor, then the median of that model's sales, then the collection floor | Method, section 2 |
| 2. Ask versus sale | If the cheapest listing is over 1.5 times the sales median (at least 3 sales), follow the sales | Method, section 2 |
| 3. Range | 5th to 95th percentile of the last 10 sales together with the estimate | Method, section 2 |
| 4. Confidence | High, medium or low; no verdict when confidence is low | Method, section 2 |
| 5. No invented number | Say not enough data instead of printing a figure | Method, sections 4 and 7 |
The method is public, dated and versioned on /how-we-value, so any number on the site can be traced back to a rule.
What this site refuses to publish
Four things. An accuracy percentage before 30 estimates have settled — 9 of 30 were settled on 2026-11-02, so the page says "not published yet" instead of a flattering number. A value for a famous name without a sale of its own, because ordinary handles do not describe a brand. A verdict on a thin market, where one listing can look like a trend. And Google price rich results, which the currency cannot support honestly while prices are quoted in GRAM.
The same discipline explains the caps. Brandable and pattern usernames are capped by the cheapest similar listing, because nobody pays more than the cheapest alternative. Exact crypto brands are valued only by their own sales. Random letter mixes never become deals, because a cheap random handle is cheap for a reason.
How to use the number
Treat it as a band, not a target: the range matters more than the midpoint, and the confidence label tells you how much of the band to believe. Check the date on the page, because a fair price from yesterday is a historical fact. And read the track record next to it — 35 hunts logged, 16 confirmed sold on Fragment, none above its alert price, median time from alert to sale under an hour — because a method that publishes its misses is worth more than one that only publishes its hits.
If you need certainty, you will not find it in a thin market: you will find a range, a date and a confidence. That is what fair price means here.
And if the number looks wrong to you, the useful move is not to argue with it but to find the input that produced it: which listing set the model floor, how many sales were behind the median, whether the class cap applied. Every figure on the site can be traced to one of those inputs, and a disagreement that names the input is a bug report — for which there is a support path inside the bot — while a disagreement with the conclusion alone is just a different opinion.
Sources: fragment.com public pages (listings, sold items, item pages), the track record page; the site's own open data at /data/floors-daily.json and /data/usernames-daily.json (CC BY 4.0); the valuation method on how we value (as of 2026-10-28). Figures checked 2026-11-02 UTC.
Next: the full method · the track record · live floors · open data · all guides
Frequently asked questions
Is the fair price an offer?
No. It is a statistical estimate from public sales, with a range and a confidence label. Nobody is obliged to buy or sell at it, including this site.
Why is no accuracy number published?
Because fewer than 30 estimates have settled: 9 of 30 on 2026-11-02. The site publishes the counter and refuses to turn it into a percentage before the sample can support one.
What does low confidence mean?
That the data behind the estimate is thin — few listings, few sales, or a wide range. In that case the site shows the number and the range but no verdict.
Do famous usernames get a value?
Only from their own sale in the last 12 months. Sales of ordinary handles do not describe a brand, so without its own sale the page says there is not enough data.
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