TG GiftsGuides · Updated 2026-11-02
What an upgrade or a craft really costs
An upgrade turns a plain gift into a unique one with a random model. A craft burns one to four gifts of the same collection for a chance at a crafted gift — and if it fails, all of them are gone. Both are paid in Telegram Stars, and neither has a fixed GRAM price here, because the Stars cost is set per collection and shown in the app, not on Fragment.
The cost stack
| Cost | Paid in | Where you see it | In our data? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | Telegram Stars | In Telegram, per collection | No — the calculator asks you to type it |
| Craft burn | 1 to 4 gifts you already own | In your inventory | No — it is your own cost |
| Resale fee | 5% of the sale price | On Fragment at resale | Yes — used in every figure |
| Network and conversion | TON | Wallet and Fragment | No — never included |
A cost that is not in the data is asked for, not guessed: /craft leaves the upgrade cost and the success chance as inputs.
The expected value, in one formula
An upgrade gives you a random model, so the expected floor is the sum of each model's chance multiplied by that model's floor: E = Σ p(model) × floor(model). That is exactly what the craft page computes from the public daily floor file. A craft adds a second layer: E = p(success) × value(crafted) − (1 − p) × value(burned). With four gifts burned at the collection floor and a success chance of 69%, you lose everything in the other 31% of cases, which is why the burned value has to be real value and not a hope.
On the success chance, be careful with numbers you read online. Early press tests reported about 25% for one gift and about 69% for three; those figures are unofficial, and for two and four gifts we have no figure at all, so the calculator asks you to type the chance Telegram shows you. Anything else would be an invented number.
When the maths says yes, and when it says no
The upgrade only makes sense when the model floor you can realistically reach is above the Stars cost plus the value of what you are giving up. Two things break that calculation. The first is the tail: a random model can be the worst model in the collection, and the expected value is an average, not a promise. The second is liquidity: a beautiful model in a collection with no recent sales is a number you cannot spend.
A craft is worse in one specific way: failure is total. Burning four gifts at 5 GRAM each risks 20 GRAM for a 69% chance, and the 31% branch returns nothing at all. Run that arithmetic before the animation, not after it.
One practical warning about the Stars price: it is quoted in Stars, not in GRAM, and the conversion you get depends on how you bought the Stars. The calculator therefore asks for the cost in GRAM as a number you supply, after you have converted it yourself — the honest alternative would be a made-up exchange rate applied to a price that changes per collection. If you cannot state the cost in GRAM, you cannot compute the expected value, and that is a reason to wait rather than to guess.
Sources: fragment.com public pages (listings, sold items, item pages), the craft calculator's own inputs; the site's own open data at /data/floors-daily.json and /data/usernames-daily.json (CC BY 4.0); the valuation method on how we value (as of 2026-10-28). Figures checked 2026-11-02 UTC.
Next: craft and upgrade calculator · how an upgrade works · live floors · the full method · Plush Pepes
Frequently asked questions
How much does a Telegram gift upgrade cost?
The cost is set per collection and paid in Telegram Stars, and Telegram shows it before you confirm. It is not published on Fragment, so this site does not store a GRAM figure — the calculator asks you to enter it.
What happens if a craft fails?
You lose every gift you burned. A craft burns one to four gifts of one collection, and a failed craft returns nothing, which is why the expected value has to subtract the burned value.
What success chance should I use?
The one Telegram shows in the app. Early press tests reported about 25% for one gift and about 69% for three, but those numbers are unofficial and there is no figure at all for two or four.
Can an upgrade lose money?
Yes. The result is a random model, so you can pay Stars and receive the least valuable model in the collection. The expected value is an average across all models, not a guarantee for one attempt.
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