How we value gifts and usernames

Method as of 2026-10-19 · data: public fragment.com pages

Short version: every number comes from public Fragment data, the method is the same for everyone, and an estimate is never a promise.

1. Data sources

Only public pages of fragment.com: items for sale, auctions, recently sold items and each item's own page (status, price, ownership history). New limited gifts come from the official Telegram Bot API. No private data, no paid feeds, no invented numbers. If the data is missing we say so.

2. Gifts: estimated value

Rarity % alone is not a price. What buyers pay for the same model is. So the estimate is, in this order:

1. the cheapest listing of the same model right now (model floor);
2. if none is listed, the median of recent sales of that model;
3. otherwise the collection floor.

The range runs from the collection floor up to the highest of the model floor, the model's recent sales median and the backdrop floor.

3. Gift snipes (alerts)

The radar reads Fragment's newest gift listings every 15 seconds and keeps a live floor for every collection. An item becomes a snipe only if all of this holds: fixed price (auctions are ignored), at most 90% of the floor it undercuts, at least 5 GRAM left after Fragment's 5% fee, and the collection actually trades (15+ recent sales; a collection younger than 72 hours needs 3 and is labelled low liquidity).

4. Usernames: estimated value

First a quality filter sorts the handle into a class: 4 characters, English words (by length, and whether they are among the 3,000 most common), palindromes and repeating patterns, short numbers, two-word brands, crypto/business keywords and short pronounceable brands. Random letter mixes are "junk": they never become a deal.

• Value = the median of real Fragment sales of the same class over the last 12 months (at least 8 sales), range = 25th to 75th percentile.
• It is capped by the cheapest similar handle listed right now: nobody pays more than the cheapest alternative.
• If the handle itself sold in the last 12 months, that sale is the strongest evidence and is used.
• Too few sales in the class: sales of similar names (at least 3). Still nothing: valued at the market floor for random handles, and we say so.

5. Username deals (alerts)

Value must be at least 50 GRAM. Buy-now listings: price at most 60% of value and under 50 GRAM. Auctions: ending within 60 minutes, current bid at most 50% of value, and the cost assumes the next bid is about 10% higher. At least 5 GRAM must remain after the 5% fee. A price under 10% of value is treated as suspicious: it gets an automatic second check and stays hidden if it fails. Every item is re-checked live on Fragment before it is delivered.

6. Fees

Every profit figure subtracts Fragment's 5% resale commission. Network fees and Fragment's one-time conversion fee are not included.

7. What we do not guarantee

• That you can resell at the estimated value, or how long it takes. Estimates are statistics, not offers.
• That a listing is still there when you open it: good deals are often bought within seconds.
• Accuracy for unique items (very rare models, famous names) where there are few comparable sales.

8. Liquidity risk

Gifts and usernames are thin markets. Your money can be locked in an item for days or weeks, and prices can fall while you wait. Only use money you can afford to have tied up.

Not financial advice. This is market data and estimates from public sales. See the track record for what happened to every past hunt.